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Why drafting Peterson could lead to championship belts
For
a few minutes there on Tuesday, I seriously considered creating another
Yahoo! ID, just so I could comment anonymously on Brad's well-argued
post about Adrian Peterson. Sometimes, the things we really want to say
in response to a coworker's piece ... well, they're things that need to
be untraceable.But then I realized that if I took the Internet-alter-ego
route, that would not be the most Team Huevos thing to do. So I decided
it was best to write a counterargument under my own byline, omitting
any violently hostile reaction to this blurb...
NIKE NFL Youth Arizona Cardinals 21 Patrick Peterson
Now obviously I don't like the implication that I'm a non-savvy
fantasy manager, simply because I refuse to take a permanent marker to
my draft board in June, before camps open. But I'm just gonna let that
go. I'm taking the high road.(Oh sure, I could use a parenthetical aside
to mention the fact that Brad is still forecasting a 1,000-yard, 9-TD
season for AP, which seems totally draftable. But I'd rather not do
that. I prefer to move forward.
Today, my intention is to make the case for selecting Peterson
somewhere near his current ADP (17.0 at Yahoo!, 16.8 at FF Calculator).
If you enter a draft room knowing that you're picking somewhere in the
6-9 range in a 12-team league, then it's at least worth considering the
downstream implications of taking Peterson in Round 2. This is a player
coming off a brutal recent injury, but we all know what he's capable of
when he's at or near full strength.
Nike NFL Minnesota Vikings 28# Adrian Peterson Purple
We're off by exactly one rushing yard and a dozen catches. That
ain't much. The big difference, clearly, is that my prediction called
for Peterson to appear in two fewer games, which of course has a
non-trivial effect on his per-game scoring average. In my Lindy's
projections, he ranked seventh in fantasy PPG. If I could rewrite the
forecast based on the most recent off-season propaganda, I'd give AP a
bit more of everything — more games, more yards, maybe another TD — but
the per-week number wouldn't be quite as high. As of this moment, you
almost have to assume Peterson will play in the early weeks of the
season, but he'll have a reduced role. Whether he opens training camp on
the preseason PUP list is really a non-issue.
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June 30, 2012, 10:15 am